Flaw of Averages Update
I coined the term Flaw of Averages at the turn of the millennium to describe the systematic errors that occur when uncertainties are approximated by single average numbers. In the 1st Edition of the book, published in 2009, I proposed as a cure the discipline of probability management, which communicates uncertainty as auditable data stored in arrays called Stochastic Information Packets (SIPs). At that time, it required specialized simulation software to take advantage of this approach. Since then, developments in three areas have turned these ideas into a practical reality. While I grind away at the 2nd Edition of the book, I have provided these updates so you may keep abreast of the discipline of probability management, which it introduced.
- The Arithmetic of Uncertainty in Native Excel.
Improvements in the little-known Excel Data Table function can dependably perform 10,000 Monte Carlo simulation trials before your finger leaves the <Enter> key.
In 2013 ProbabilityManagement.org was incorporated as a 501(c)(3) non-profit to provide education, standards, and best practices for communicating and calculating uncertainty.
- Adult Supervision
As Thomas Edison pointed out, success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. A small, devoted team of responsible adults have sweated the details to transform probability management from a quixotic quest to a sustained movement. I am forever thankful for their support.