In the Summer of 2012, I discovered that Excel could dependably perform calculations with uncertainties using the same keystrokes you would use for numbers. Furthermore, the new SparkIine Graph feature could display the histograms of those uncertainties in single cells. The real breakthrough was that the Excel data table function had become robust enough to perform real time Monte Carlo simulation with tens of thousands of trials per keystroke.

These improvements in Excel do for simulation what penicillin did for antibiotics, potentially delivering a cure for the Flaw of Averages to millions. (I apologize in advance to Microsoft, for the implied analogy between Excel and moldy bread, but the parallel holds because both are so readily available).

For more read my article in the November/December 2012 issue of Analytics Magazine.

Distribution Processing and the Arithmetic of Uncertainty