The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, by Dr. Sam Savage
with Illustrations by Jeff Danziger

Now in Paperback with a Foreword by Harry Markowitz


"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages."
William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense
"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. ... In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable and comprehensible."
Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics
"The Flaw of Averages is a rare mix of entertainment and education."
The Investment Professional
"I highly recommend this book as an entertaining and enlightening read for anyone who deals with estimating uncertainty."
Risk Professional Magazine




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  • Already own the book? Explore online animations and simulations by chapter.

  • Sam Savage demonstrates how Probability Management can cure
    the Flaw of Averages

    Probability Management Part 1: The Flaw of Averages
    Probability Management Part 2: Probability Management in Action
    Probability Management Part 3: Creating SIPs from Forecasts