Learn how to make chance-informed decisions with this groundbreaking new book from the author of The Flaw of Averages.

In his popular book The Flaw of Averages, author Sam L. Savage described common avoidable mistakes made when assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. In this book, he explains how to fix the Flaw of Averages through Chancification, a revolutionary approach for making chance-informed decisions. Just as electrification replaces technologies using fossil fuels with those using electricity, Chancification replaces computations based on deterministic numbers with those based on probabilities. And just as non-experts can illuminate light bulbs with electricity generated by power engineers, Chancification allows everyday managers (even those suffering from Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder, or PTSD) to illuminate the chances of success or failure of their projects based on vetted, auditable estimates generated by statisticians and data scientists.

Topics include:

• Curing Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD) with Limbic Analytics, which connects the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants.

• Downloadable examples of how to fix the Flaw of Averages in Excel.

• The Arithmetic of Uncertainty: Arithmetic tells you that X+Y=Z. The Arithmetic of Uncertainty ask what you want Z to be, then estimates the chances.

• Speaking Uncertainty to Power: Clear explanations can earn you the permission to be uncertain.

• The Technology of Chancification, including the SIPmath™ Standard from ProbabilityManagement.org, based on Doug Hubbard’s portable random number generator and Tom Keelin’s breakthrough Metalog distribution.

SPECIAL PROMOTION: Use code BPFS2 to receive a 30% discount on the print version (be sure to click Apply)

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact.

As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage — ­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ — describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.

Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants.

The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.