Chapter 38
The Flaw of Averages in Healthcare
The Average Cost of Contamination Is Not the Cost of the Average Contamination
Paper Airplane model
The Average Epidemic Does Not Grow at the Average Growth Rate
This model reflects the effects of ignoring the uncertainty in the initial growth rate of an infectious disease, what epidemiologists call the Reproductive Ratio or R0 (R naught).
Related Reading
Blog Post: “A Combination of Coronavirus and the Flaw of Averages Can Drive You Nuts” by Sam Savage
